Below is an example model and analysis results to demonstrate how TreeAge Pro can be used to examine a civil case from the plaintiff’s perspective.
Represent legal strategies and points visually within a model. In this tree, we have the choice to litigate or settle. The Litigate strategy includes possible outcomes including two legal points that must be “won” to receive damages.
Add inputs for quantitative analysis. In the model above, you see numeric inputs for probabilities of winning legal points, for damage estimates and for attorney fees.
Compare legal strategies based on expected values. All scenarios are calculated at the model endpoints. Then those scenario values are then rolled back to calculate the weighted average of all outcomes, resulting in the strategy’s overall Expected Value (EV). These strategy EVs can then be compared to determine the best option. Because the Litigate strategy has the higher EV, it is recommended for the plaintiff.
Assess risk related to each strategy. The Probability Distribution graph below shows the full spectrum of possible outcomes for the Litigate strategy. This gives the plaintiff an assessment of risk related to bad outcomes. Note that there is a 52% chance of receiving no award and only paying attorney fees, which may make the Settlement strategy more attractive.
Use decision models for mediation working towards a settlement. Analysis and risk assessment by both plaintiff and defendant may encourage settlement as each party better understands their risk.
Evaluate how changes to your inputs affect your preferred strategy.
Introduce ranges for your inputs to see how sensitive your decision is to input uncertainty.